For all I know prefabrication and modular installation could kick in an economy of scale that might make the numbers work. It’s just that a mile seems awfully long. The biggest I can think though is about a hundred feet of track, 25 feet tall… To make that scale up to 10 million a mile, you’d have to do that hundred feet for just under $190,000. Tricky.

Phil: followed your link, which lands on Charley Pine’s interview, but I found the Army Base vision, which is at http://blip.tv/file/915767/

Awesome presentation. I really like the music, actually. A little narration could make it more understandable, but I get the drift.

I have data that differs from you opinion, but must admit when I first saw the system had the exact same reaction you did. Further, we are very early in the process of vetting PRT but so far I have been surprised at the data and reception PRT has gotten from other project areas around the CBD and Bay Area. The PRT is not a monorail and it is not listed as unqualified for federal or state funding from the research I have doen thus far. Even though I have other ideas for funding… a federal transportation grant would be heart warming, NO? True also that the Heathrow installation is different that what we expect in Norcal, being in a seismically active area was factored that into our initial financial models, but ultimately the challange that transcends cool is that the operating costs vs the fair box . You raise a very valid point that requires mucho due diligence before we go further. We pursue this vision and search for a better Oakland.

A video of my proposal is viewable at either blip.tv, or philtagami.com

Tagami

Also, 2232 is closed? That’s too bad!

I’m most skeptical of the $10 million per mile number. I just don’t get how you get unionized workers to build steel concrete and electrical structures 20 feet in the air for that kind of number. Maybe there’s an economy of scale. It just seems low to me. If I could see a broken down bid, I might be swayed.

The only place I’ve seen where people are vowing to build PRT right now is the green city project in the UAE, but again, they’ve got money over there to build the Burj Dubai.

•••••

I won’t beat you up on Hyphy. I’ll just suggest you go to 2232 MLK and see what a responsible hip-hop venue looks like. If they can do it this close to Ghosttown, they can do it in JLS. It was the management, not the music.

So Cybertran. Why, why, why are people so skeptical? Is it because of who is behind it? Is it because it’s never been done before? It’s not tried and proven technology? It’s unmanned. It’s cheaper per foot than BART. I just don’t get why people are so against it.

The DARPA unmanned cars are pretty far in the future, undoubtedly more than 10 years. Look at how long it took for hybrids to become so mainstream. I think they’ll be using them in the military long before we see them on the streets of Oakland. They are pretty cool though. But Cybertran seems more energy efficient, imho.

We’re always going to be saying that something new is coming. Be it unmanned cars, a better iPhone, a faster computer, etc. But at some point you gotta commit and take what’s out there now. Otherwise you never make any progress. Cybertran is cutting edge right now.

Back to PRT. I think cybertran qualifies, but I’m still skeptical. I’m going to go out on a crazy crazy limb here and say that new, relatively unknown tech is what will ultimately be the next step in transit. I was talking to V about this last night – DARPA has held a series of races of autonomous cars. The last one was urban. Cars had to follow a course, in traffic, obey traffic laws, and operate without any human assistance whatsoever after the start of the race. Some managed to finish, and quickly. Fast forward ten years, and we finally have the unmanned taxis we’ve been promised since the 50s.

I’m not saying that’s the answer to transit, or transit at the port. I am saying that we are on the verge of a number of technological leaps that will disrupt and transform cities. That’s why I’m dubious about the Tomorrowland people movers. I think by the time that the Army Base project gets rolling, we’ll have some very interesting options to consider beyond PRT or BART or buses or anything we can even conceive of.

OK, crazy utopian futurist rant over. I’m basically just all silly ’cause I’m getting an iphone on friday and I was thinking that in 5 years that awesome doohickey will look quaint.

I went down to the Square tonight to make a deposit and grab some ice cream (why couldn’t we get Fenton’s instead of Ben & Jerry’s?) and noticed 1) how dead it was and 2) saw CyberTran (offices in retail space? or just a display?) and wished, once again, that we could figure out a way to make that happen. Isn’t CyberTran PRT?

Makasete